Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
IU Indy Jaguars vs. Wright State Raiders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8282b5c61f9ceb4d7bb92b822bb74e86645dccdb0cf484ccc2cc84deb1d027c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wright State Raidersof IU Indy Jaguars, Wright State Raiders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,225
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,225 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7a0a…24a9backed IU Indy Jaguars | 17c | 10,335$1,726 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,725.64 | 45 | 13.3%6 W · 39 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0b…9672backed IU Indy Jaguars | 13c | 2,344$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.32 | 85 | 17.6%15 W · 70 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed IU Indy Jaguars | 12c | 1,527$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.92 | 815 | 28.8%235 W · 580 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb7…1f17backed IU Indy Jaguars | 6c | 1,043$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 149 | 30.2%45 W · 104 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc4…0c92backed IU Indy Jaguars | 14c | 936.14$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.06 | 990 | 45.6%451 W · 539 L | +9.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed IU Indy Jaguars | 12c | 458.48$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.8 | 176 | 27.8%49 W · 127 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca6b…9c23backed IU Indy Jaguars | 13c | 388.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked IU Indy Jaguars | 15c | 300.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 2,194 | 33.4%733 W · 1,461 L | +19.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked IU Indy Jaguars | 16c | 289.88$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 4,382 | 40.5%1,775 W · 2,607 L | +23.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked IU Indy Jaguars | 11c | 281.67$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.98 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…eccebacked IU Indy Jaguars | 14c | 200$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 1,317 | 33.6%443 W · 874 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08cf…4b40backed IU Indy Jaguars | 14c | 149.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -71.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed IU Indy Jaguars | 12c | 111$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Wright State Raiders | 79c | 102$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.29 | 252 | 46.4%117 W · 135 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Wright State Raiders | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1,540 | 41.3%636 W · 904 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- IU Indy Jaguars vs. Wright State Raidersthis page
- Spread: Wright State Raiders (-12.5)IU Indy Jaguars won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.