Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x829030e911e8957178fe86d4085992f1b84d496b6c74b7efedab8b773335b7b7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Northwestern Wildcatsof Michigan Wolverines, Northwestern Wildcats
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,289
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,289 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Northwestern Wildcats | 50c | 9,000$4,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,500 | 369 | 44.2%163 W · 206 L | -19.0wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4da…3175backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 2,900$1,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,450 | 898 | 50%449 W · 449 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 1,856$924 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$923.74 | 5,553 | 47.4%2,634 W · 2,919 L | +26.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 1,406$703 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$703 | 1,155 | 50.4%582 W · 573 L | -34.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb820…cbe7backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 1,018$509 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509 | 104 | 48.1%50 W · 54 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Northwestern Wildcats | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 557 | 49.2%274 W · 283 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc42c…42a1backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 847$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.5 | 635 | 51.5%327 W · 308 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…c650backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 694.08$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$353.86 | 88 | 45.5%40 W · 48 L | -6.9wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 49c | 682.2$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.92 | 2,687 | 48.5%1,303 W · 1,384 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 672.57$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.56 | 2,124 | 50.4%1,070 W · 1,054 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…15efbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 525.37$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.65 | 191 | 38.2%73 W · 118 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba5a…344cbacked Michigan Wolverines | 53c | 468.09$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -4.2wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 320$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 794 | 48.9%388 W · 406 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Michigan Wolverines | 10c | 230.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1,420 | 43.9%623 W · 797 L | +8.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Michigan Wolverines | 10c | 201.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.62 | 2,003 | 53.7%1,076 W · 927 L | +101.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8b…d3d6backed Northwestern Wildcats | 51c | 125$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 307 | 46.3%142 W · 165 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad3e…2c44backed Northwestern Wildcats | 53c | 95$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.75 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5562…3b41backed Michigan Wolverines | 51c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.45 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Northwestern Wildcats | 49c | 46.92$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 12,422 | 49.8%6,191 W · 6,231 L | +118.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Northwestern Wildcats | 46c | 46.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.06 | 2,254 | 42.2%951 W · 1,303 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 213 | 42.3%90 W · 123 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c4a…7e4fbacked Michigan Wolverines | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Michigan Wolverines | 49c | 29.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Northwestern Wildcats | 51c | 29.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 383 | 51.7%198 W · 185 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-15.5)this page
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Northwestern WildcatsMichigan Wolverines won
- Michigan Wolverines vs. Northwestern Wildcats: O/U 152.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.