College Football · resolved market
Louisville vs. Kentucky
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x82a52db6bbef8243e3bb901c6dda67cc04bfbde7a3c7b6da6c7932744dee1d7c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Louisvilleof Louisville, Kentucky
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,681
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,681 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Kentucky | 0c | 3,391$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 237 | 0.8%2 W · 235 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 3cpaid | -98.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f84…dd89backed Kentucky | 49c | 1,012$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1388…339abacked Kentucky | 21c | 1,000$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215 | 84 | 48.8%41 W · 43 L | +6.8wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35aa…94bcbacked Louisville | 66c | 484.79$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.95 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Louisville | 71c | 381.64$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.67 | 203 | 41.9%85 W · 118 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Louisville | 62c | 226.34$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.01 | 231 | 45.5%105 W · 126 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Louisville | 63c | 194.57$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.99 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Kentucky | 37c | 149.99$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.5 | 76 | 53.9%41 W · 35 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb48d…9f73backed Kentucky | 39c | 128.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.19per pick | 43cpaid | -54.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b2…ece3backed Kentucky | 36c | 113.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.86 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc21d…4ed8backed Louisville | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 59 | 30.5%18 W · 41 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…3cf2backed Kentucky | 35c | 71.29$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | -5.1wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked Kentucky | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 219 | 41.6%91 W · 128 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x602d…3534backed Louisville | 62c | 48.39$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 167 | 50.3%84 W · 83 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff5…ce78backed Louisville | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -47%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03e3…08e0backed Louisville | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +3.0wins | +0.08per pick | 61cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.