Serie A · resolved market
Will AC Milan beat Atalanta?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83368d544ef2a6767a222934e155504140cfadd74b85e4a7642b1552a905b665
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,527
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,527 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Yes | 37c | 2,699$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$998.6 | 79 | 45.6%36 W · 43 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x12d6…dbbcbacked No | 63c | 2,485$1,565 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$919.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdb8…af02backed No | 65c | 1,901$1,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$669.6 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +52.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Yes | 35c | 1,462$512 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$511.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01b5…b082backed Yes | 36c | 835$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5765…7a40backed Yes | 36c | 665$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 38c | 530$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.4 | 142 | 54.2%77 W · 65 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb252…70a1backed No | 64c | 485$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fab…9d63backed No | 64c | 380$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…a755backed No | 64c | 370$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 62c | 369$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.22 | 285 | 56.1%160 W · 125 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…4202backed Yes | 36c | 335$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 36c | 263.08$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.8 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfad4…9d23backed No | 64c | 215$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3084…2638backed No | 64c | 175$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd28…374abacked No | 65c | 143$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.05 | 62 | 66.1%41 W · 21 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…f2d0backed No | 64c | 125$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6842…4e0abacked No | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…db66backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…d90ebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42d5…dc75backed Yes | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…f34fbacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 63c | 71$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.27 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3547…7064backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c7…7f8dbacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68e…68bebacked No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AC Milan beat Atalanta?this page
- Will Atalanta beat AC Milan?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.