Serie A · resolved market
Will Atalanta beat AC Milan?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeb4c351ba826d3f39bcac63228cf26defbd4e3fb43ae64b77b6b1b8d7ad3477d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,954
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,954 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x82d9…6dafbacked Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc60…a755backed Yes | 36c | 980$353 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…0c86backed No | 64c | 740$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5a5…9f24backed No | 64c | 585$374 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$374.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74f6…d90ebacked Yes | 36c | 580$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +117%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43a4…8c33backed Yes | 36c | 480$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d15…d6e4backed Yes | 36c | 470$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65e1…64dbbacked Yes | 36c | 415$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.64per pick | 36cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd412…85ddbacked No | 64c | 365$234 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$233.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1f…896bbacked No | 64c | 330$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xace9…3e37backed No | 64c | 320$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4128…5165backed No | 64c | 270$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02a…a6b1backed No | 64c | 255$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63d4…e229backed Yes | 37c | 218.76$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.07 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +167.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Yes | 36c | 210.02$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.98 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x634c…4d23backed No | 64c | 210$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aab…91cfbacked No | 64c | 165$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b92…9a2bbacked No | 64c | 165$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c70…89f5backed No | 64c | 145$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848b…8d58backed No | 64c | 140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9057…527ebacked No | 64c | 140$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab1…feffbacked No | 64c | 136.47$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf98…c7d9backed No | 64c | 84.44$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x198f…f2d0backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4951…f34fbacked No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f7c…1191backed No | 64c | 80$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 65c | 76.92$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 60 | 53.3%32 W · 28 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26ae…97b8backed No | 63c | 70.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b42…29a4backed No | 64c | 45$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f66…db66backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3521…8441backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1177…3fe3backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1809…cd61backed No | 64c | 24.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Atalanta beat AC Milan?this page
- Will AC Milan beat Atalanta?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.