Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83758298d01596c099a66e3cef19ea474c96101980cde8be3540c17c4ec5ca55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Execration, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,316
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa27c…ab67backed Execration | 79c | 1,500$1,180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,180 | 799 | 59.4%475 W · 324 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Carstensz | 32c | 1,119$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.17 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Carstensz | 21c | 508.87$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.33 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Carstensz | 21c | 476.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.28 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Execration | 68c | 420.04$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.85 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Execration | 48c | 405.63$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.73 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Carstensz | 52c | 318.75$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…2812backed Execration | 54c | 300$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162 | 118 | 36.4%43 W · 75 L | -3.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Carstensz | 27c | 167.66$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.23 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Execration | 55c | 150$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Carstensz | 55c | 126$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Carstensz | 46c | 60.12$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.46 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Carstensz | 58c | 26.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier PlayoffsCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerExecration won
- First Blood in Game 2?Execration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.