Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5be602f5eebe0a8ed495d29046a933371b301e1121a071c1f5e0b489633eaeb6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Carstenszof Execration, Carstensz
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,350
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Execration | 66c | 1,704$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.98 | 2,012 | 44.2%889 W · 1,123 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…0a00backed Carstensz | 33c | 1,461$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$981.44 | 91 | 58.2%53 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1994…d63cbacked Carstensz | 47c | 1,437$672 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.87 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +21%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Execration | 56c | 1,234$695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$695.35 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39a7…bcb7backed Carstensz | 35c | 852.44$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550.36 | 109 | 49.5%54 W · 55 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x07fa…f5cdbacked Carstensz | 33c | 788.03$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.09 | 462 | 40.7%188 W · 274 L | +15.4wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd83…7d7cbacked Carstensz | 49c | 556.27$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285.73 | 147 | 47.6%70 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Execration | 37c | 542.5$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.73 | 702 | 36.6%257 W · 445 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b56…9100backed Carstensz | 43c | 449.21$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$256.05 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +2.6wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Execration | 62c | 435.18$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.93 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf0a…320abacked Carstensz | 49c | 427.14$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.15 | 920 | 56.4%519 W · 401 L | +78.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked Execration | 66c | 409.52$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.7 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77a0…4bfdbacked Execration | 60c | 402.69$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.34 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.15per pick | 62cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Execration | 65c | 365.9$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$237.74 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad09…612cbacked Execration | 59c | 352.68$209 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.17 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Execration | 59c | 348.92$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.66 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Execration | 57c | 326.25$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.65 | 1,272 | 45%572 W · 700 L | -40.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Carstensz | 25c | 274$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.94 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa74a…4893backed Execration | 66c | 269.36$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.22 | 361 | 38.2%138 W · 223 L | -20.4wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6326…6329backed Execration | 57c | 250.45$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.23 | 155 | 45.2%70 W · 85 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b0…26a7backed Execration | 72c | 250$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Execration | 59c | 239.64$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.44 | 592 | 50.5%299 W · 293 L | -20.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x368d…d853backed Execration | 50c | 222.68$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.34 | 615 | 48.8%300 W · 315 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Carstensz | 22c | 215.11$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.45 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0702…e5eabacked Execration | 60c | 200.04$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.9 | 407 | 45.5%185 W · 222 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c07…5feabacked Execration | 50c | 198.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 179 | 54.2%97 W · 82 L | -12.6wins | -0.07per pick | 61cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked Execration | 56c | 182.75$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.65 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5051…82a6backed Carstensz | 58c | 168.07$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.59 | 204 | 52.5%107 W · 97 L | +12.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2e…896dbacked Carstensz | 21c | 166.24$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…ff4fbacked Execration | 49c | 141$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.25 | 312 | 51.3%160 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…5198backed Execration | 53c | 133.54$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 105 | 71.4%75 W · 30 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb308…23a6backed Carstensz | 53c | 131$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.22 | 169 | 39.6%67 W · 102 L | -15.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed Carstensz | 79c | 125.31$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63c4…26f2backed Execration | 79c | 120.08$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.86 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbb2…0b31backed Execration | 75c | 119.99$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.99 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fde…0258backed Carstensz | 39c | 119.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.87 | 260 | 50.4%131 W · 129 L | +6.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Carstensz | 29c | 116.65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.34 | 958 | 41.1%394 W · 564 L | +32.7wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b99…8bddbacked Carstensz | 65c | 116.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 774 | 58.5%453 W · 321 L | +75.1wins | +0.10per pick | 49cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Execration | 67c | 111.57$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.31 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Execration | 60c | 111$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.27 | 209 | 54.5%114 W · 95 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x839f…c2cebacked Carstensz | 40c | 108.39$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.01 | 199 | 51.8%103 W · 96 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0833…bc88backed Carstensz | 80c | 107.1$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.42 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e4d…1cb0backed Carstensz | 63c | 107.04$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 576 | 54.5%314 W · 262 L | +29.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x588d…3f41backed Execration | 38c | 105.91$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.25 | 285 | 44.9%128 W · 157 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ed0…b5b8backed Carstensz | 50c | 105.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.40per pick | 46cpaid | +85.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Carstensz | 50c | 105.87$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 253 | 49.4%125 W · 128 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f9b…cdeebacked Execration | 50c | 103.96$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.31 | 690 | 33.3%230 W · 460 L | -27.9wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed Execration | 38c | 101.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 410 | 37.3%153 W · 257 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Execration | 60c | 100.75$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.51 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Execration | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 324 | 41.7%135 W · 189 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0659…d74dbacked Execration | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 858 | 51.3%440 W · 418 L | +30.8wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93ed…a4cbbacked Execration | 61c | 93.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.64 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -6.2wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa306…a39dbacked Execration | 62c | 83.06$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.5 | 105 | 61%64 W · 41 L | +7.4wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed Execration | 79c | 79.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.19 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked Carstensz | 22c | 73.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.45 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Execration | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.2 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebf4…181ebacked Carstensz | 75c | 65.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 107 | 70.1%75 W · 32 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22d6…b7b5backed Carstensz | 52c | 65.45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1b41…2c02backed Carstensz | 30c | 59.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.42 | 726 | 37.5%272 W · 454 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa20…fd0dbacked Execration | 68c | 50.38$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed Carstensz | 52c | 50.03$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.03 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x82cf…3d55backed Execration | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 93 | 52.7%49 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e3e…a78abacked Carstensz | 58c | 46.73$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.79 | 412 | 44.7%184 W · 228 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c8…a184backed Execration | 51c | 42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.42 | 360 | 44.2%159 W · 201 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x34c5…db89backed Execration | 78c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 127 | 59.8%76 W · 51 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd752…7b4fbacked Execration | 79c | 37.5$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.62 | 354 | 61.3%217 W · 137 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9a9…263cbacked Carstensz | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 241 | 37.3%90 W · 151 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dea…e294backed Execration | 45c | 34.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Carstensz | 31c | 33.41$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.97 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xaa57…a128backed Execration | 65c | 33.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 466 | 64.2%299 W · 167 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea49…434fbacked Carstensz | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.83 | 71 | 57.7%41 W · 30 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82bf…de71backed Carstensz | 50c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.15 | 547 | 53.6%293 W · 254 L | +22.9wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Execration | 66c | 20.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Execration | 60c | 16.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1,013 | 45.5%461 W · 552 L | -46.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c62…d20bbacked Execration | 79c | 14.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.79per pick | 79cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - DreamLeague Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 1 WinnerCarstensz won
- Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz - Game 2 WinnerExecration won
- First Blood in Game 2?Execration won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.