Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Portland Pilots vs. Oregon Ducks
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x839b99914bb41b06fbcea1c3ff0e4282f92242148ff40789bcbb7d98d28b2357
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Oregon Ducksof Portland Pilots, Oregon Ducks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,401
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb433…7705backed Portland Pilots | 7c | 15,783$1,116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,116.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Portland Pilots | 10c | 3,592$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.5 | 334 | 38.9%130 W · 204 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ba…63f3backed Portland Pilots | 7c | 3,050$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.5 | 105 | 11.4%12 W · 93 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2838…fdd3backed Portland Pilots | 8c | 2,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.17per pick | 32cpaid | -77%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Portland Pilots | 1c | 1,585$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 399 | 3.3%13 W · 386 L | -21.0wins | -0.05per pick | 9cpaid | -89.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38fa…87b5backed Portland Pilots | 9c | 1,107$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 140 | 27.1%38 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Portland Pilots | 6c | 1,035$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.1 | 1,227 | 27.8%341 W · 886 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2509…e4dbbacked Portland Pilots | 8c | 820.7$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.5 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Portland Pilots | 7c | 808.17$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9486…45c8backed Portland Pilots | 9c | 630.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7799…496bbacked Portland Pilots | 2c | 592.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a5f…3670backed Portland Pilots | 6c | 333.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd6…ab3dbacked Portland Pilots | 5c | 299.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,487 | 43%639 W · 848 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x873d…97b5backed Portland Pilots | 8c | 271.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 73 | 24.7%18 W · 55 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -27%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e4…5bbcbacked Portland Pilots | 7c | 268$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.76 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7944…4f13backed Portland Pilots | 8c | 219.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a4…953ebacked Portland Pilots | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20b2…f114backed Portland Pilots | 9c | 200$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Portland Pilots | 6c | 167$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3d4…2bacbacked Portland Pilots | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 97 | 71.1%69 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.