Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x83ef9e92b50b42046534fec56e9e17a92abae6ae224b10f511aee4a1921ebeeb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,752
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,752 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 66c | 245.05$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.28 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 20c | 211.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e24…7379backed Yes | 17c | 199.41$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.31 | 456 | 19.1%87 W · 369 L | -11.8wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbf5…53c9backed Yes | 37c | 195.78$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.04 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 156.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbc…1d9ebacked No | 74c | 117.86$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.58 | 115 | 69.6%80 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 76c | 115.08$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 37c | 101.67$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.02 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 23c | 85.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.73 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 33c | 76.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.95 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7e07…109fbacked No | 65c | 66.92$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.54 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…0500backed Yes | 23c | 65.1$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.88 | 85 | 38.8%33 W · 52 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x95d4…839abacked Yes | 22c | 62.59$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 281 | 19.9%56 W · 225 L | -12.9wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd78…be86backed Yes | 30c | 60$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 60cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e3…f004backed Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 277 | 32.5%90 W · 187 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 36c | 48.22$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 42c | 41.36$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.34 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 37c | 40.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 35c | 37.39$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fdf…28a2backed Yes | 31c | 35.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 561 | 31.7%178 W · 383 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d46…dc46backed Yes | 54c | 35.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.11per pick | 53cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6400…331abacked Yes | 30c | 34.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 424 | 69.1%293 W · 131 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…d7c5backed No | 58c | 33.19$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.04 | 241 | 49.8%120 W · 121 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256a…c1fbbacked No | 64c | 29.92$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 56 | 35.7%20 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +32.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34a…1a73backed Yes | 50c | 26.59$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 186 | 68.8%128 W · 58 L | +27.3wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…4e57backed No | 44c | 23.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 45c | 22.95$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.62 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 63c | 18.78$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc07…cd29backed Yes | 56c | 17.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…c8bbbacked No | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x967e…2fb6backed No | 76c | 15.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 143 | 32.9%47 W · 96 L | -3.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on April 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C or below on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on April 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 14°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 15°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 16°C on April 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 17°C on April 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.