Dota2 · resolved market
Games Total: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8431be1865179d72d39c4ee8da7f48074440cac2e24d3301d70d5f848ceb7b7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,412
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,660
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,412 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58f8…dc70backed Under | 77c | 1,207$925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.6 | 62 | 61.3%38 W · 24 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Over | 23c | 913$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.03 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed Over | 23c | 299.83$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.75 | 491 | 33.6%165 W · 326 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 72c | 152$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.56 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4844…9c83backed Under | 72c | 141$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Under | 72c | 134$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.52 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.4wins | +0.43per pick | 45cpaid | +117.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…8248backed Under | 72c | 86$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 72c | 85$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…9305backed Under | 72c | 81$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.68 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 52cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…3600backed Under | 72c | 52$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.0wins | +0.30per pick | 40cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb87…88d1backed Under | 72c | 48$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Under | 72c | 43$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…7d27backed Over | 28c | 43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.04 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…88cfbacked Over | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -59%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…f2d1backed Over | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4d0…9b74backed Over | 28c | 38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 50cpaid | +33%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06b1…614cbacked Over | 28c | 37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 36.94$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.75 | 738 | 41.7%308 W · 430 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a10…cf6cbacked Under | 78c | 25.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.68 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3da4…28d7backed Under | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 76 | 47.4%36 W · 40 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7927…34d2backed Under | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Games Total: O/U 2.5this page
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 4Pirates (BO3)Aurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 4Pirates - Game 1 WinnerAurora won
- Dota 2: Aurora vs 4Pirates - Game 2 WinnerAurora won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.