Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8440aebfaa2cc445a7ac2abd9cf6dca51e1cac43de9ff3229ea539ddff7b5306
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $63,390
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $63,390 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 57c | 40,467$23,253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23,253.45 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 21,213$9,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,447.6 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 40c | 10,466$4,227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,239.73 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 43c | 4,099$1,769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,329.96 | 769 | 41.9%322 W · 447 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 60c | 3,321$1,988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,332.23 | 2,990 | 42.5%1,270 W · 1,720 L | +9.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…bca4backed Yes | 20c | 3,047$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,427.45 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 37cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe831…a42abacked Yes | 15c | 2,937$441 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.41 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 14c | 1,082$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.31 | 361 | 36%130 W · 231 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe3c…a835backed No | 55c | 1,000$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550 | 87 | 47.1%41 W · 46 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked No | 47c | 688.74$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.71 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6a6…7971backed Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.62 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.15per pick | 47cpaid | +46.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1604…21b6backed Yes | 52c | 304.81$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1450…2e44backed Yes | 15c | 277.97$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 10cpaid | +240%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c1…732fbacked Yes | 19c | 277.77$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.81per pick | 19cpaid | +426.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50f6…a276backed Yes | 16c | 267.85$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.84per pick | 16cpaid | +525%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 42c | 267.59$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.92 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b85…bf37backed Yes | 14c | 243.94$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.79 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 48c | 209.41$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.04 | 179 | 56.4%101 W · 78 L | +13.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 73c | 177.33$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.29 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed No | 37c | 171.74$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.25 | 218 | 35.8%78 W · 140 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefb9…e74fbacked Yes | 15c | 118.27$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.41 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 133 | 37.6%50 W · 83 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7602…2775backed No | 22c | 72.12$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.17 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 22cpaid | -82%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41ad…8dddbacked No | 23c | 64$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.84 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -4.7wins | -0.15per pick | 27cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Yes | 60c | 47.92$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 149 | 63.1%94 W · 55 L | +8.7wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8614…ffc6backed No | 42c | 47.6$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x934c…d02bbacked Yes | 41c | 43.17$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed Yes | 49c | 27.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.99 | 200 | 48%96 W · 104 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0466…b3a5backed Yes | 63c | 23.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.45per pick | 62cpaid | -73.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb329…2a8cbacked No | 56c | 21.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.03 | 49 | 51%25 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Crystal Palace FC vs. AEK Lárnakas end in a draw?this page
- Will AEK Lárnakas win on 2026-03-12?No won
- Will Crystal Palace FC win on 2026-03-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.