MLB · resolved market
Royals vs. Tigers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x848d34afb347e35fbefcbe9226aab4cbf73c080e2d88d274d87493789ea412f9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $700
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $700
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $700 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Over | 49c | 298.28$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.15 | 1,097 | 50.1%550 W · 547 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Under | 48c | 143.38$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.56 | 1,530 | 50.5%772 W · 758 L | +20.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 48c | 113.54$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.04 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936d…9544backed Under | 51c | 54.24$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +114.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a83…4ad5backed Over | 52c | 53.12$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x183f…3bfebacked Under | 51c | 52.55$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +46.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc78…4e56backed Over | 52c | 50.48$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad2…429dbacked Over | 52c | 50.46$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 55cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Under | 48c | 50.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.24 | 543 | 45.5%247 W · 296 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd091…d992backed Under | 51c | 49.18$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.1 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +52.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf15…547abacked Under | 51c | 48.88$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd2…a281backed Under | 51c | 48.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf02a…67a7backed Over | 53c | 47.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.32per pick | 57cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d45…117bbacked Over | 52c | 46.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.39 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa46a…98bdbacked Under | 51c | 46.8$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.93 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0c…f457backed Over | 52c | 46.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.25 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1154…33a8backed Over | 52c | 46.27$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa254…40a6backed Under | 51c | 41.55$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Royals vs. Tigers: O/U 8.5this page
- Royals vs. TigersTigers won
- Spread: Tigers (-1.5)Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.