Bundesliga · resolved market
Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8497502444391e8747a8d283c4e3c88d32564b4a3694ba94cbb46b8c23af349e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $40,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 18c | 9,260$1,654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,654.35 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 56c | 3,782$2,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,130.06 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c84…a8edbacked No | 56c | 3,214$1,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,800 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f3…9576backed Yes | 44c | 3,121$1,366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,755.24 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Yes | 69c | 2,926$2,019 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.17 | 536 | 45.9%246 W · 290 L | +6.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 72c | 1,821$1,302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$518.9 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 5c | 819.85$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 44c | 702.26$309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$393.27 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 69c | 408.07$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.42 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 69c | 400$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 56c | 376.05$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.59 | 565 | 47.8%270 W · 295 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 57c | 353$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.77 | 569 | 51.8%295 W · 274 L | +10.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 35c | 284.33$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.74 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 56c | 272.39$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.45 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e6…d96bbacked No | 31c | 210$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.1 | 82 | 43.9%36 W · 46 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 44c | 200$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 61 | 36.1%22 W · 39 L | -5.4wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 77c | 84$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 53c | 82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 782 | 48.8%382 W · 400 L | -28.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 81.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 85 | 41.2%35 W · 50 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ae…74c0backed Yes | 68c | 79.51$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.51 | 98 | 56.1%55 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 56c | 79.51$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.9 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 55c | 68.89$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 481 | 46.4%223 W · 258 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8405…2163backed Yes | 45c | 68.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.89 | 181 | 40.3%73 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a47…cfbbbacked Yes | 43c | 46.14$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a6f…170dbacked Yes | 67c | 35.96$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5337…222bbacked Yes | 65c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.6 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.7wins | +0.38per pick | 48cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…8e2ebacked Yes | 67c | 29.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.64 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 67cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd95f…e1aabacked Yes | 42c | 26.19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.19 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 78c | 23.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed No | 57c | 17.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 258 | 50.4%130 W · 128 L | +6.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…2142backed Yes | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.8 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -4.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-22?this page
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-22?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.