Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb272a31966f37f6806ef6e910b5bd0663ebb0ba19bb31b5e7c2b6979c1985cb1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,987
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,214
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,987 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 76c | 3,572$2,723 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$849.07 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa569…08dfbacked Yes | 32c | 2,000$640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$640 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 12c | 1,250$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.97 | 95 | 32.6%31 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 12c | 732.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.93 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Yes | 31c | 640$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.4 | 158 | 29.1%46 W · 112 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 482.08$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.17 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 454.35$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.45 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6aa…8882backed Yes | 13c | 243.32$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.9 | 72 | 19.4%14 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d9…f193backed Yes | 11c | 230.27$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.16per pick | 24cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Yes | 7c | 191.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.02 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 175 | 47.4%83 W · 92 L | -9.0wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes | 31c | 148.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 82 | 46.3%38 W · 44 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6aa…3746backed Yes | 32c | 140$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed Yes | 9c | 133.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked No | 69c | 74.57$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 386 | 46.9%181 W · 205 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80cf…427dbacked Yes | 30c | 66.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.92 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 69c | 36.58$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b7f…7aecbacked Yes | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…a67dbacked No | 70c | 19.41$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 70c | 17.1$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 64 | 70.3%45 W · 19 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 62cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e3…4bd5backed No | 69c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 37 | 70.3%26 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Hertha BSC win on 2026-02-22?this page
- Will SC Paderborn 07 vs. Hertha BSC end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Paderborn 07 win on 2026-02-22?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.