Stocks · resolved market
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84c3ee93b19aa7aa841c54a20aa1b29db06b8d92e1292b3ce617f3917ea0c962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,823
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,529
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,823 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 12 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdbde…3dc9backed Yes | 28c | 300$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 100 | 49%49 W · 51 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfb…ebbfbacked No | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdad6…0d14backed Yes | 26c | 274.79$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.45 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 29cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 18c | 107$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1355…a695backed Yes | 10c | 102.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.13 | 63 | 7.9%5 W · 58 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked No | 73c | 95.43$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.55 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -37%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9a…0a8cbacked Yes | 44c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99ba…6391backed No | 58c | 41.18$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.18 | 164 | 26.8%44 W · 120 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb01…db9abacked No | 74c | 27$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.02 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 63c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 56c | 22.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 158 | 35.4%56 W · 102 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $360-$370 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?this page
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?Yes won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?No won
- Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $390-$400 on the final day of trading of the week of Apr 6 – Apr 10?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.