La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84d26f3ab96bebe1a4bf1f2ef274160d914e93b6c921a0d274d11f41a3718065
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,546
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1590…9e72backed Yes | 34c | 1,001$336 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked No | 69c | 950.29$656 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.59 | 112 | 60.7%68 W · 44 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 66c | 786.64$521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.54 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a2…9874backed Yes | 33c | 303.03$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 144 | 27.8%40 W · 104 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 30c | 273.64$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.56 | 4,753 | 47.1%2,238 W · 2,515 L | -21.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 29c | 237$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.77 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 235$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.15 | 490 | 57.1%280 W · 210 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…f1c5backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…39c7backed Yes | 41c | 73.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x873a…2066backed No | 77c | 62.88$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.15 | 218 | 42.7%93 W · 125 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc0d…8bcabacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 69 | 31.9%22 W · 47 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 34c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 65 | 30.8%20 W · 45 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…58e1backed No | 68c | 40$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.8 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 73c | 20.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 598 | 55.5%332 W · 266 L | +32.2wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?this page
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2025-12-21?Yes won
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.