La Liga · resolved market
Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2025-12-21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcb6fa9a1a666be1c2f5877d55cb07b7fa6eb73a49452e4603dd925a1965c5066
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,455
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,266
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,455 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed Yes | 34c | 30,000$10,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19,800 | 172 | 48.8%84 W · 88 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…4193backed No | 66c | 29,452$19,438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19,438.01 | 94 | 59.6%56 W · 38 L | +5.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 49c | 636.64$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310.76 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62d1…c018backed No | 69c | 492.03$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.34per pick | 67cpaid | -49.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x237e…a5f0backed Yes | 34c | 352.94$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.94 | 67 | 28.4%19 W · 48 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 31c | 317.05$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.76 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x854e…8ad8backed Yes | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.27per pick | 60cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 38c | 111.17$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…1b07backed Yes | 34c | 73.53$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.53 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 32c | 71.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.95 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 26c | 58.57$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.47 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c16…39c7backed Yes | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | -31%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 21c | 50.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.63 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5681…b253backed No | 68c | 48.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.29per pick | 63cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…1fd5backed No | 68c | 45.59$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.3wins | -0.32per pick | 61cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 32c | 44.78$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 559 | 41.1%230 W · 329 L | -11.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…71e3backed No | 68c | 42.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 67cpaid | -48.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 57c | 26.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1e…e465backed No | 43c | 26.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb5bf…d68bbacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.65per pick | 65cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…968fbacked Yes | 76c | 14.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.47 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2025-12-21?this page
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. AD Ceuta FC end in a draw?No won
- Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol B win on 2025-12-21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.