Tennis · resolved market
ITF Denia: Pavel Lagutin vs Lorenzo Angelini
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x84e924067e6ba2394260073acedf12a5a6df8dac69ba7b10b2dc9ab96d3b3514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pavel Lagutinof Pavel Lagutin, Lorenzo Angelini
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,381
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,978
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,381 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x54ba…04e4backed Lorenzo Angelini | 32c | 6,068$1,942 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,941.87 | 721 | 29.7%214 W · 507 L | -41.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Pavel Lagutin | 63c | 4,153$2,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,521.7 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Pavel Lagutin | 67c | 2,990$2,017 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$972.49 | 11,666 | 43.4%5,059 W · 6,607 L | +22.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef53…4591backed Lorenzo Angelini | 55c | 1,821$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 175 | 43.4%76 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2802…347dbacked Lorenzo Angelini | 1c | 1,250$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 157 | 33.1%52 W · 105 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9dd…b525backed Lorenzo Angelini | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 258 | 43.8%113 W · 145 L | +12.2wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f15…bdb3backed Pavel Lagutin | 45c | 964.24$434 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$530.33 | 1,158 | 41.4%479 W · 679 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked Pavel Lagutin | 45c | 750$338 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$412.5 | 268 | 41.8%112 W · 156 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dae…125cbacked Pavel Lagutin | 40c | 732.54$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.52 | 228 | 46.5%106 W · 122 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3941…e366backed Pavel Lagutin | 69c | 724.64$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1d7…47a4backed Lorenzo Angelini | 58c | 668.97$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388 | 1,053 | 40.9%431 W · 622 L | -25.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78a1…5551backed Lorenzo Angelini | 49c | 499.99$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.9 | 904 | 35.7%323 W · 581 L | -15.7wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b4…d723backed Lorenzo Angelini | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 191 | 46.6%89 W · 102 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Lorenzo Angelini | 6c | 211$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 4,650 | 48.2%2,242 W · 2,408 L | +31.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3aca…5d2bbacked Lorenzo Angelini | 47c | 114.32$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 93 | 57%53 W · 40 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc90…6c55backed Pavel Lagutin | 61c | 102.64$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.03 | 30 | 63.3%19 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4318…9a94backed Pavel Lagutin | 54c | 97.73$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.43 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb9…a54bbacked Lorenzo Angelini | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe24e…eecebacked Pavel Lagutin | 73c | 68.49$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.49 | 897 | 54.6%490 W · 407 L | +8.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06e1…b7d4backed Lorenzo Angelini | 30c | 50.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c10…30f1backed Pavel Lagutin | 75c | 50.16$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -3.9wins | -0.25per pick | 75cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Lorenzo Angelini | 59c | 45.68$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 8,702 | 42.6%3,708 W · 4,994 L | -165.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Lorenzo Angelini | 46c | 41.04$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Pavel Lagutin | 62c | 30.61$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 1,629 | 49%798 W · 831 L | -51.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Pavel Lagutin | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 1,588 | 47%746 W · 842 L | -24.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f2…8c8dbacked Pavel Lagutin | 53c | 28.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 1,766 | 45.9%810 W · 956 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x747f…f2d7backed Pavel Lagutin | 47c | 25.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 901 | 52.3%471 W · 430 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pavel Lagutin | 45c | 24.95$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 9,038 | 36.1%3,266 W · 5,772 L | -196.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa4…5e60backed Pavel Lagutin | 74c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.83 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Pavel Lagutin | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,089 | 52.2%1,090 W · 999 L | +17.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d34…d7b5backed Lorenzo Angelini | 59c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.7 | 525 | 52.4%275 W · 250 L | -17.3wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…30b1backed Pavel Lagutin | 75c | 16.76$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.19 | 881 | 57.9%510 W · 371 L | +15.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.