Tennis · resolved market
ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay: Matyas Cerny vs Karol Filar
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x851a06d0e0826455df4be66a73e03f89b454dd1a72375b02ee088af7d20ab484
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Matyas Cernyof Matyas Cerny, Karol Filar
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,598
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,610
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,598 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Karol Filar | 42c | 4,283$1,795 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,794.54 | 11,877 | 43.3%5,143 W · 6,734 L | +19.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7462…3ac3backed Matyas Cerny | 58c | 2,600$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,100.23 | 1,750 | 50.2%878 W · 872 L | +29.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e9…caedbacked Matyas Cerny | 57c | 1,053$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$452.63 | 113 | 61.9%70 W · 43 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Karol Filar | 39c | 830.4$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$319.91 | 9,267 | 36.2%3,352 W · 5,915 L | -199.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…ef3dbacked Matyas Cerny | 63c | 465.2$294 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.37 | 553 | 51.9%287 W · 266 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…cd12backed Matyas Cerny | 52c | 381.26$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.26 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Matyas Cerny | 58c | 358.93$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.3 | 3,952 | 55.1%2,176 W · 1,776 L | +107.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Karol Filar | 28c | 252.85$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.84 | 8,921 | 42.6%3,799 W · 5,122 L | -169.4wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Karol Filar | 36c | 162.25$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.91 | 2,076 | 52.9%1,099 W · 977 L | +33.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Matyas Cerny | 65c | 143.84$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.63 | 8,127 | 50.8%4,126 W · 4,001 L | +84.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e69…553abacked Matyas Cerny | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 992 | 55.9%555 W · 437 L | +24.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…5e75backed Matyas Cerny | 54c | 92.59$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.59 | 973 | 56%545 W · 428 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Matyas Cerny | 51c | 89.98$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.09 | 3,303 | 40.2%1,329 W · 1,974 L | +22.9wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Matyas Cerny | 67c | 74.63$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.63 | 1,039 | 49.9%518 W · 521 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…98dbbacked Matyas Cerny | 76c | 65.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 84 | 53.6%45 W · 39 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…ba95backed Karol Filar | 42c | 61.1$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 92 | 41.3%38 W · 54 L | -4.6wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x88a9…e618backed Matyas Cerny | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 1,001 | 55.3%554 W · 447 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…696ebacked Karol Filar | 51c | 46.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.57 | 344 | 48.8%168 W · 176 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d8…da3bbacked Matyas Cerny | 65c | 18.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.53 | 536 | 47%252 W · 284 L | +27.2wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c57…4d10backed Matyas Cerny | 73c | 18.63$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 86 | 57%49 W · 37 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2422…2986backed Matyas Cerny | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.22per pick | 48cpaid | +63.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay: Matyas Cerny vs Karol Filarthis page
- ITF MEN - SINGLES: M25 Poznan (Poland), clay: Completed Match: Matyas Cerny vs Karol FilarYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.