Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on August 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8524463f0ffa636cf9b2ec82cbe4ba3cd26e7b91bedb120a3e9e9db2c0ee5962
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,086
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Yes | 37c | 985.2$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.5 | 113 | 49.6%56 W · 57 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x461d…db9ebacked No | 67c | 717$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 65c | 400$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142 | 938 | 40.2%377 W · 561 L | -69.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc362…0f5ebacked No | 69c | 244.41$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.48 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 73cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403f…b886backed Yes | 56c | 168.2$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 27cpaid | +303.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d64…26c3backed Yes | 50c | 141.82$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe3…305dbacked Yes | 25c | 121$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 42 | 14.3%6 W · 36 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…9bdebacked No | 46c | 91$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.54 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…4155backed Yes | 42c | 59.73$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.23 | 107 | 39.3%42 W · 65 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -23%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3096…58a3backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 64c | 38.19$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | -94.9wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x27b8…ed0ebacked No | 57c | 36.96$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bed…c72dbacked No | 59c | 26.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f26…e28dbacked Yes | 50c | 26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed No | 60c | 25.34$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 365 | 50.4%184 W · 181 L | +15.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a9…d90abacked Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.18per pick | 60cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa7df…780ebacked Yes | 55c | 19.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on August 21?this page
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on August 21?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on August 21?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on August 21?Yes won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on August 21?No won
- WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on August 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.