Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on August 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x852ff74619b77c306116e9c1f479a0c0237f1e63b97c007b0cf76f177d1dcb0d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Downof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,342
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,342 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x41f3…844ebacked Down | 41c | 2,194$894 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,300.03 | 308 | 39%120 W · 188 L | +20.5wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Down | 39c | 1,660$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.73 | 144 | 56.3%81 W · 63 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…0d21backed Up | 32c | 972.89$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.03 | 56 | 50%28 W · 28 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Up | 57c | 899.66$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$514.55 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed Up | 60c | 755$453 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$453 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x06ce…0b8bbacked Up | 54c | 750$404 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.12 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02fa…d979backed Up | 59c | 719.05$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.05 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | +3.1wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82af…f7d1backed Up | 59c | 650.46$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.27 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Down | 62c | 625$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.5 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4867…a6f8backed Up | 60c | 543.93$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.78 | 98 | 58.2%57 W · 41 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefd6…7981backed Down | 39c | 512.82$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x899c…81b0backed Down | 58c | 500.87$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x969f…4d55backed Down | 58c | 378.74$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 116 | 50.9%59 W · 57 L | +8.0wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3f…2e7cbacked Down | 55c | 224.08$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.97 | 87 | 65.5%57 W · 30 L | +11.7wins | +0.13per pick | 52cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x91e5…0947backed Down | 73c | 200$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x566c…3d03backed Down | 47c | 184.26$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.66 | 52 | 36.5%19 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Down | 34c | 112.21$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.27 | 46 | 10.9%5 W · 41 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…bf7dbacked Up | 51c | 104.73$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.45 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b6…e854backed Down | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9574…a119backed Down | 76c | 65.78$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…8ca3backed Up | 49c | 65.71$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.23 | 369 | 50.7%187 W · 182 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa2e…162cbacked Down | 34c | 60$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +105.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed Down | 44c | 51.14$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +19.8wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +40.2%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Up | 73c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 61cpaid | -38.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ca…9d00backed Up | 63c | 49.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Down | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.8 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x250f…4fc6backed Down | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x17e4…4d33backed Down | 47c | 38.94$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.64 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…8a46backed Up | 58c | 37.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.19 | 119 | 51.3%61 W · 58 L | -11.3wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -19%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf9ef…20ebbacked Down | 33c | 33.41$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 106 | 41.5%44 W · 62 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd851…64d7backed Down | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Up | 47c | 30.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa282…4697backed Down | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae79…5322backed Down | 46c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c1…d279backed Down | 63c | 22.08$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5dd…1373backed Down | 47c | 21.42$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.