Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x855069d7f8ef2f71abd15a952d485e95dc7573c6e47e09417a25f637adc0135e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Michigan Stateof Wisconsin, Michigan State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,011
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,011 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d45…b661backed Michigan State | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 102 | 36.3%37 W · 65 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cfe…a1e0backed Wisconsin | 38c | 76.32$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Wisconsin | 40c | 61.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.72 | 188 | 50%94 W · 94 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x734e…8900backed Michigan State | 65c | 55$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.25 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe163…9241backed Wisconsin | 35c | 51$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb76e…f98ebacked Wisconsin | 35c | 47$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2b…86e7backed Wisconsin | 35c | 44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2335…f78dbacked Michigan State | 64c | 36$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22c…3f20backed Wisconsin | 36c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde53…e5bebacked Michigan State | 62c | 33.63$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 348 | 42.8%149 W · 199 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8b6…3fa7backed Michigan State | 65c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18b…b797backed Michigan State | 65c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74a2…8a37backed Michigan State | 58c | 21.32$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc084…3d02backed Michigan State | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.43per pick | 57cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1977…32e8backed Michigan State | 62c | 19.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.55 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb4b…baa0backed Michigan State | 65c | 19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41fe…ef28backed Michigan State | 64c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +56.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.