Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x85686bad4238809ab4425c8f9ed9f241c8a2dbbc34170289c4705c0e7c683fb8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,321
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,861
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,321 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x81ed…59f5backed Amaru Gaming | 4c | 1,289$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a40…f518backed Amaru Gaming | 34c | 430.44$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 154 | 37%57 W · 97 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1179…8bc2backed Team Nemesis | 80c | 346.67$277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.16per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Amaru Gaming | 20c | 283.92$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Amaru Gaming | 15c | 276.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.53 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Amaru Gaming | 33c | 207.54$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.2 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 74c | 199.54$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.67 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Nemesis | 65c | 150$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 700 | 52.3%366 W · 334 L | +47.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c67…a479backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 142.86$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.8 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x589a…8dc5backed Amaru Gaming | 27c | 142.77$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.48 | 204 | 42.2%86 W · 118 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Amaru Gaming | 18c | 127.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.84 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8289…f84cbacked Amaru Gaming | 25c | 119.16$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -84.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e34…4480backed Amaru Gaming | 28c | 80.56$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 177 | 37.9%67 W · 110 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40ba…7ea5backed Team Nemesis | 72c | 80.56$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.56 | 537 | 57.7%310 W · 227 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5965…d26dbacked Amaru Gaming | 25c | 49.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +55.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…416cbacked Team Nemesis | 72c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.09 | 175 | 50.9%89 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x226b…aa1fbacked Amaru Gaming | 38c | 36.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Team Nemesis | 75c | 33.12$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.18 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -28%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Team Nemesis | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 37 | 64.9%24 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…56efbacked Team Nemesis | 71c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.64 | 565 | 42.8%242 W · 323 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb7ab…16d0backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 14.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 430 | 67%288 W · 142 L | +31.9wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier Playoffsthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.