Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a133a620362c05ce6f9bd5438fa27995a5ab0246e4c0c960ea14d14c6405fd7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, Amaru Gaming
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,913
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,594
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,913 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Amaru Gaming | 3c | 1,401$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.73 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab04…a00abacked Amaru Gaming | 50c | 1,106$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553 | 379 | 45.9%174 W · 205 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 672.99$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$318.3 | 1,901 | 47.6%905 W · 996 L | +4.6wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked Amaru Gaming | 42c | 352.27$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.42 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 286.74$167 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.49 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked Team Nemesis | 55c | 182.44$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.55 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 150$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 66c | 116.91$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.24 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 100.4$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.2 | 187 | 45.5%85 W · 102 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad69…7397backed Team Nemesis | 74c | 98.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.23 | 511 | 40.3%206 W · 305 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4704…515ebacked Team Nemesis | 31c | 87.35$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.35 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a06…31d8backed Amaru Gaming | 53c | 82.62$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.19 | 416 | 55.3%230 W · 186 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Team Nemesis | 37c | 81$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 140 | 48.6%68 W · 72 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc444…416cbacked Team Nemesis | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 175 | 50.9%89 W · 86 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1d…d8c0backed Amaru Gaming | 41c | 70.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 161 | 52.2%84 W · 77 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Team Nemesis | 41c | 70.21$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd206…bd2abacked Amaru Gaming | 24c | 54.64$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.27 | 159 | 57.2%91 W · 68 L | +8.3wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x431a…50d7backed Amaru Gaming | 66c | 53.03$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…165bbacked Amaru Gaming | 41c | 51.52$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 1,275 | 33.5%427 W · 848 L | -15.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Team Nemesis | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…693abacked Team Nemesis | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 546 | 48.5%265 W · 281 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94f4…77a2backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 38.63$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d03…b8a6backed Team Nemesis | 71c | 36.62$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 214 | 65%139 W · 75 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…fd49backed Team Nemesis | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 148 | 68.9%102 W · 46 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e38…b4cbbacked Team Nemesis | 53c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72c2…5e74backed Amaru Gaming | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 793 | 43.6%346 W · 447 L | +38.4wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America Closed Qualifier PlayoffsTeam Nemesis won
- Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming - Game 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.