La Liga · resolved market
Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x863b18e6918c61993ad965944489e478f0a7f38a35d6b9674b3f6e6f5bfefd10
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,665
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1a87…4e00backed No | 33c | 12,636$4,176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,176.19 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee03…3eeabacked Yes | 68c | 6,121$4,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,980.12 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e94…6243backed Yes | 69c | 5,489$3,763 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,726.42 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | +7.2wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed No | 32c | 3,091$1,001 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.55 | 146 | 47.9%70 W · 76 L | +11.6wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Yes | 67c | 1,648$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.97 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked Yes | 68c | 1,437$982 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.84 | 50 | 54%27 W · 23 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed No | 29c | 1,087$315 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$315.31 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf80b…fa00backed Yes | 69c | 1,000$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$315 | 34 | 58.8%20 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 30c | 716.11$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.83 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 67c | 600$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 3,461 | 43%1,489 W · 1,972 L | +31.4wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 70c | 542.86$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.86 | 114 | 57.9%66 W · 48 L | +4.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d0f…933abacked Yes | 71c | 422.54$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.54 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa270…42c9backed Yes | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x95de…42d5backed Yes | 71c | 140.85$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.85 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…1a56backed No | 31c | 80$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d40…f95abacked Yes | 71c | 71.79$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a54…e581backed Yes | 71c | 70.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.42 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5445…4e0bbacked Yes | 70c | 60$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…4cc5backed Yes | 69c | 50.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48d…8a40backed Yes | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.9 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Yes | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.86 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6163…8507backed Yes | 70c | 35.71$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.71 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfdb…7a75backed Yes | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.9wins | +0.12per pick | 63cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e49…2d2dbacked Yes | 69c | 33.33$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bef…0526backed Yes | 69c | 30.29$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Villarreal win on 2025-08-15?this page
- Will Real Oviedo win on 2025-08-15?No won
- Will Villarreal vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.