Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8658134706d85a4cf517534cd7e4954df40d3b885375f8c4d14471a8d422979a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,383
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,383 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed Yes | 22c | 1,165$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.35 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab78…fac0backed Yes | 10c | 892.87$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$804.65 | 26 | 7.7%2 W · 24 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf04c…b823backed No | 13c | 861.26$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x754b…a66ebacked No | 3c | 676.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.59 | 74 | 1.4%1 W · 73 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -68.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 54c | 602.66$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$278.8 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 34c | 560.53$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.84 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 6c | 279.1$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$262.37 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 11c | 222.58$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.57 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed Yes | 34c | 141.22$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.76 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked No | 73c | 128.3$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.79 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda89…8a6cbacked Yes | 36c | 60.44$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.66 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked No | 47c | 51.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…33f3backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 27c | 45.38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x66d1…9671backed No | 70c | 42.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.70per pick | 70cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9af5…cfe1backed Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1584…71b6backed No | 68c | 29.84$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked No | 54c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.