Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on February 16?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d01ceb2c747b4cafda21fc8aba3ae2139feae36e0a298079eeb9449e1c58a65
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,710
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,640
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,710 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbd01…d8cdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,020$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.17 | 332 | 43.1%143 W · 189 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc537…f385backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 1cpaid | +1,328.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900e…f6bfbacked No | 42c | 1,000$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$579.3 | 76 | 82.9%63 W · 13 L | +27.3wins | +0.36per pick | 47cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 80+0.27 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a8…12eabacked Yes | 44c | 620.84$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.16 | 48 | 50%24 W · 24 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34ec…b7cfbacked Yes | 35c | 600$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.75 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb13c…4af2backed No | 65c | 599.36$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -63.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed Yes | 17c | 498.39$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.58 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 49c | 391.51$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.43 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9d…06b0backed No | 77c | 356.05$273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.05 | 187 | 27.3%51 W · 136 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682c…87a9backed Yes | 35c | 153.86$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.58 | 464 | 23.5%109 W · 355 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x49c2…33f3backed Yes | 35c | 150$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 22c | 91.68$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.54 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x2742…1f7abacked No | 76c | 77.71$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.56 | 113 | 59.3%67 W · 46 L | +17.5wins | +0.15per pick | 44cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 78c | 74.03$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.69 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc92b…d66ebacked Yes | 40c | 73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.07 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 27cpaid | -66.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked No | 27c | 70.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.07 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 31c | 70$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70db…afb2backed Yes | 50c | 69$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6371…fc91backed No | 76c | 65.74$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 98 | 36.7%36 W · 62 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24dd…12afbacked No | 67c | 60$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed9…c127backed No | 79c | 56.47$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.58 | 50 | 56%28 W · 22 L | +5.3wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cd…0b02backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd75c…fd4ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33b…6de8backed Yes | 32c | 49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.78 | 55 | 30.9%17 W · 38 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 71c | 45$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.89 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb201…2766backed Yes | 77c | 40$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf114…6eccbacked Yes | 30c | 37.83$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,090 | 74.2%809 W · 281 L | +179.3wins | +0.16per pick | 58cpaid | +34.1%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x386a…f453backed Yes | 80c | 37.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd1…984bbacked No | 61c | 34.13$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +64%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b1b…a70bbacked Yes | 49c | 27.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8891…b5fcbacked No | 61c | 26$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 40 | 62.5%25 W · 15 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4896…fe47backed Yes | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaed7…a541backed Yes | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9417…28a3backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 81 | 39.5%32 W · 49 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…516bbacked No | 73c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 70c | 14.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 10°C on February 16?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on February 16?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C or higher on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 6°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C on February 16?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on February 16?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.