Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x867e5a82e74d31652e1cfceb7232389dca35361fea1b078de21d46724b038310
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- VP.Prodigyof VP.Prodigy, AVULUS
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,298
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,572
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,298 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdf3…1bb5backed AVULUS | 41c | 2,469$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.02 | 283 | 41%116 W · 167 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb569…5695backed VP.Prodigy | 60c | 2,335$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$941.23 | 190 | 47.9%91 W · 99 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…07c3backed AVULUS | 49c | 858.85$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.49 | 544 | 45.8%249 W · 295 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47bd…bc9dbacked VP.Prodigy | 44c | 853.38$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477.89 | 410 | 55.6%228 W · 182 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed AVULUS | 58c | 833.1$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$483.2 | 894 | 40.3%360 W · 534 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf5…42f2backed VP.Prodigy | 42c | 833.1$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$483.2 | 574 | 55.4%318 W · 256 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9223…26a9backed VP.Prodigy | 57c | 467.44$266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +110.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacf6…41fcbacked AVULUS | 55c | 363.82$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 606 | 46.9%284 W · 322 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…f17abacked AVULUS | 9c | 299.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 87 | 9.2%8 W · 79 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4f…5459backed VP.Prodigy | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1f…aa39backed AVULUS | 56c | 277.02$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.13 | 450 | 61.6%277 W · 173 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf243…5fb4backed AVULUS | 49c | 224.47$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.08 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1197…8311backed AVULUS | 56c | 182.63$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.27 | 126 | 61.1%77 W · 49 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9be…8b35backed AVULUS | 62c | 161.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42b…7ea9backed VP.Prodigy | 38c | 161.29$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 465 | 35.1%163 W · 302 L | +22.9wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9a8…528fbacked AVULUS | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad22…10dcbacked VP.Prodigy | 55c | 55.58$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.01 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.11per pick | 59cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked VP.Prodigy | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3a…d5b0backed AVULUS | 52c | 19.87$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs AVULUS - Game 2 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs AVULUS (BO3)VP.Prodigy won
- Dota 2: VP.Prodigy vs AVULUS - Game 1 WinnerVP.Prodigy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.