Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Team Essence - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x86c0d98031e50fceb0cb3bd49556dde24ed72d11fd08bd6081fe3e3a428c6035
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Cloud Risingof Cloud Rising, Team Essence
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,577
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,577 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x974f…cd80backed Cloud Rising | 45c | 717.05$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$397.44 | 551 | 47.5%262 W · 289 L | +22.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5af…f9e3backed Team Essence | 59c | 449.96$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$266.81 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c83…6f40backed Team Essence | 64c | 156.25$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 204 | 57.8%118 W · 86 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…c534backed Cloud Rising | 45c | 155.26$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.26 | 577 | 35%202 W · 375 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e63…9e38backed Cloud Rising | 50c | 145.64$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.82 | 345 | 61.2%211 W · 134 L | +17.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Essence | 50c | 116.04$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1fa…f3bebacked Team Essence | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.11 | 134 | 50.7%68 W · 66 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x679d…6f07backed Team Essence | 53c | 85$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.05 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1709…c148backed Team Essence | 53c | 83.47$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.13 | 483 | 52.4%253 W · 230 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c56…0615backed Team Essence | 52c | 76.95$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 64 | 31.3%20 W · 44 L | -5.9wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e85…3015backed Cloud Rising | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.22 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Cloud Rising | 42c | 45.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa87f…5bb5backed Team Essence | 60c | 42.09$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x134c…eeefbacked Cloud Rising | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6684…2985backed Team Essence | 59c | 34.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ad3…8065backed Cloud Rising | 51c | 26.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.22 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Team Essence - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Cloud Rising vs Team Essence (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Asia Group StageCloud Rising won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.