CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ARCRED (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8844e745c606504e7254f08c5d9029da69258c760627cce671d7ea7f7d35c0d6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Team Nemesisof Team Nemesis, ARCRED
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,339
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,339 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Nemesis | 56c | 2,266$1,277 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$989.17 | 807 | 44.6%360 W · 447 L | -5.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb525…bdc7backed ARCRED | 21c | 1,301$277 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.43 | 258 | 45.7%118 W · 140 L | -18.3wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Team Nemesis | 60c | 921.27$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.19 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3be…f543backed ARCRED | 36c | 825.45$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 229 | 52%119 W · 110 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x953f…15e6backed Team Nemesis | 79c | 823.95$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 275 | 56.4%155 W · 120 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9589…5b36backed Team Nemesis | 47c | 700$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371 | 48 | 62.5%30 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0e…ad94backed ARCRED | 62c | 675.4$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420 | 113 | 65.5%74 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89eb…cff9backed ARCRED | 53c | 655.17$347 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$347.24 | 364 | 50.3%183 W · 181 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked ARCRED | 44c | 643.06$283 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$282.66 | 148 | 39.2%58 W · 90 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Nemesis | 79c | 539.08$429 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.54 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb5a…6eabbacked ARCRED | 12c | 499.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.3wins | +0.19per pick | 37cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x16fd…b4d3backed ARCRED | 33c | 477.82$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.37 | 298 | 40.3%120 W · 178 L | -9.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6179…6f80backed ARCRED | 53c | 399.98$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.99 | 503 | 40.2%202 W · 301 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b55…d74bbacked Team Nemesis | 47c | 365.41$172 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.67 | 498 | 49.6%247 W · 251 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c64…89babacked ARCRED | 23c | 334.3$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.12 | 345 | 42.3%146 W · 199 L | -8.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18aa…2287backed Team Nemesis | 79c | 311.31$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16be…73dabacked Team Nemesis | 49c | 310.2$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.2 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3eb3…4d75backed Team Nemesis | 79c | 287.57$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.79 | 50 | 50%25 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf66…e823backed Team Nemesis | 50c | 213.86$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.15 | 180 | 41.7%75 W · 105 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa775…ab33backed ARCRED | 50c | 210.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.81 | 195 | 54.4%106 W · 89 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb963…3fa0backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 201$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.49 | 500 | 43%215 W · 285 L | -10.9wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…086ebacked ARCRED | 53c | 200.6$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.32 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -3.9wins | -0.15per pick | 50cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f54…c5e4backed ARCRED | 15c | 196.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…dd89backed ARCRED | 18c | 182.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x757d…1496backed Team Nemesis | 45c | 180$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.8 | 246 | 49.6%122 W · 124 L | +10.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf69…4fa2backed Team Nemesis | 46c | 169.99$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.6 | 317 | 31.9%101 W · 216 L | -13.4wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cee…dfadbacked Team Nemesis | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.73 | 88 | 44.3%39 W · 49 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed ARCRED | 50c | 141.6$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 4,038 | 48.1%1,943 W · 2,095 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471d…0c2abacked Team Nemesis | 78c | 124.01$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.28 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd41b…f231backed ARCRED | 47c | 116.31$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.83 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked ARCRED | 53c | 111.7$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 1,710 | 52.3%895 W · 815 L | -73.4wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed ARCRED | 15c | 107.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 50 | 22%11 W · 39 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcbd2…f8a0backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 187 | 52.4%98 W · 89 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb87…4611backed ARCRED | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 121 | 58.7%71 W · 50 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe564…221abacked ARCRED | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,078 | 32%345 W · 733 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1769…94efbacked ARCRED | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 916 | 48.9%448 W · 468 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8359…5944backed ARCRED | 20c | 69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 697 | 32%223 W · 474 L | -46.0wins | -0.07per pick | 39cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc55…a069backed ARCRED | 37c | 68.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.39 | 98 | 52%51 W · 47 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f94…519ebacked ARCRED | 32c | 62.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1c…35c6backed Team Nemesis | 48c | 60.05$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 214 | 54.2%116 W · 98 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29f8…ffa9backed ARCRED | 44c | 58.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.85 | 432 | 39.1%169 W · 263 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed ARCRED | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 2,468 | 24.6%607 W · 1,861 L | -317.8wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x0077…44a7backed ARCRED | 21c | 50.53$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 45 | 37.8%17 W · 28 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6312…f94ebacked Team Nemesis | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 53 | 35.8%19 W · 34 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Team Nemesis | 39c | 45$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.25 | 1,500 | 9.9%148 W · 1,352 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 368 | 45.9%169 W · 199 L | +15.8wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5aa4…16e3backed Team Nemesis | 68c | 37.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.94 | 765 | 46.7%357 W · 408 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0f…b652backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 36$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 217 | 39.2%85 W · 132 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked ARCRED | 54c | 34.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +9.9wins | +0.21per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa7…2bb4backed Team Nemesis | 49c | 33.56$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca88…fb7abacked Team Nemesis | 75c | 33.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.17 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa423…d3dfbacked Team Nemesis | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.1 | 50 | 36%18 W · 32 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked Team Nemesis | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.18 | 77 | 49.4%38 W · 39 L | +5.4wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e81…922bbacked ARCRED | 53c | 26.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe00d…4251backed Team Nemesis | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ARCRED (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs ARCRED - Map 2 WinnerTeam Nemesis won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.