Premier League · resolved market
Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x886963e5ec1a91a7cab1f4d4d10c735eda9e6d210c81cb815c289bd86f960d58
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,562
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,398
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,562 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x40f7…1f5ebacked Yes | 49c | 982.48$481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$501.07 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 51c | 765.07$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.25 | 741 | 56.8%421 W · 320 L | +46.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc4cd…a98dbacked Yes | 44c | 656.63$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.88 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 56c | 446.14$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.84 | 51 | 60.8%31 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa383…a2f0backed No | 55c | 238.5$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.36 | 220 | 40.5%89 W · 131 L | -9.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8af3…bfa1backed Yes | 43c | 225.7$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a9e…2e40backed Yes | 49c | 197.41$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.46 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 56c | 165.44$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.17 | 1,074 | 45%483 W · 591 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked No | 57c | 123.26$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.76 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9db…6789backed No | 51c | 119.21$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.8 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +10.9wins | +0.30per pick | 42cpaid | +99.7%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 58c | 117.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.26 | 43 | 65.1%28 W · 15 L | +3.9wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…a15abacked Yes | 44c | 109.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 33 | 63.6%21 W · 12 L | +5.2wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 46c | 76.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.57 | 413 | 43.3%179 W · 234 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 53c | 76.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 56c | 72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.32 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked No | 57c | 62.74$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 210 | 56.7%119 W · 91 L | +6.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 41c | 50.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 1,662 | 34.9%580 W · 1,082 L | -32.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a9…f0f8backed No | 59c | 48.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.83 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c07…cc3bbacked Yes | 42c | 45.73$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.52 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 46cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b94…8f32backed Yes | 45c | 25.79$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa427…f87fbacked No | 57c | 24.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 57c | 23.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Manchester City FC vs. Arsenal FC: Draw at halftime?this page
- Arsenal FC leading at halftime?No won
- Manchester City FC leading at halftime?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.