NHL · resolved market
Flames vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88e08a0a62933d3c2f478fd33eba5f9b9f0a744391ed80a63d320b6b5bca87f6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,770
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,770 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 54c | 2,570$1,388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,182.39 | 895 | 47%421 W · 474 L | -18.0wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef23…5b60backed Under | 46c | 2,514$1,157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,156.63 | 642 | 42.2%271 W · 371 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8f0…b903backed Over | 53c | 900$477 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$423 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +35%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255c…d29cbacked Under | 47c | 900$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 46c | 453.2$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.15 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 46c | 116$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.36 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc07d…5bd8backed Over | 71c | 83$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.69 | 102 | 62.7%64 W · 38 L | +13.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Under | 46c | 78$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 47 | 55.3%26 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf71c…488bbacked Over | 54c | 51$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 46c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…02b3backed Over | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed Over | 54c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…e97abacked Over | 54c | 28$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb520…60bcbacked Over | 54c | 26$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.96 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…c747backed Over | 54c | 24$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.04 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flames vs. Blackhawks: O/U 5.5this page
- Flames vs. BlackhawksBlackhawks won
- Flames vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5Over won
- Spread: Blackhawks (-1.5)Blackhawks won
- Spread: Flames (-1.5)Blackhawks won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.