College Football · resolved market
Spread: BYU (-18.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x88e9ce4bcb7ef3ada12f3df0fa0217c8f0e66fbbae796c1f19fd7fcd642783c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- BYUof BYU, Stanford
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,448
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7fb7…e33dbacked Stanford | 45c | 18,471$8,352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,352.16 | 377 | 49.6%187 W · 190 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked BYU | 55c | 12,371$6,804 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,567.11 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3751…7dfdbacked BYU | 54c | 4,958$2,687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,271.26 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Stanford | 45c | 2,500$1,125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125 | 190 | 43.2%82 W · 108 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x565f…215abacked BYU | 57c | 1,404$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.51 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fc8…39efbacked BYU | 56c | 1,341$751 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.81 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed BYU | 55c | 1,000$545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Stanford | 41c | 341$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.81 | 190 | 51.6%98 W · 92 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Stanford | 45c | 225$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.25 | 568 | 44.5%253 W · 315 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed BYU | 55c | 225$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.25 | 135 | 48.9%66 W · 69 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed BYU | 55c | 100$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 227 | 50.7%115 W · 112 L | +9.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked BYU | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 103 | 42.7%44 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed BYU | 55c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 209 | 50.2%105 W · 104 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…74ccbacked BYU | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ad1…8c20backed Stanford | 45c | 33.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: BYU (-18.5)this page
- Stanford vs. BYUBYU won
- Stanford vs. BYU: O/U 46.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.