Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8901c840e73dc7d74f916593a53dcb6d2b493048590c5dd4c84955cc334ff9bd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,415
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,866
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,415 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 31c | 355.53$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.69 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 18c | 250$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 11c | 209.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.89 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 36c | 149.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.93 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942d…278ebacked Yes | 12c | 139.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.14 | 434 | 30.9%134 W · 300 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +78.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 32c | 134.53$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.97 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x381d…07edbacked Yes | 17c | 117.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd540…f3dbbacked Yes | 25c | 113.39$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9c5…8588backed No | 70c | 110.82$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.67 | 22 | 77.3%17 W · 5 L | +2.9wins | +0.13per pick | 64cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbea9…1e9abacked Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 23c | 93.05$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b5…db37backed No | 80c | 83.14$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.63 | 137 | 51.8%71 W · 66 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x143c…487ebacked Yes | 36c | 82.24$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 58 | 31%18 W · 40 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 65c | 76.93$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.93 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 73c | 75.46$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 77c | 65.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.27 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 68c | 65$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.1 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 16c | 63.36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2451…09fabacked Yes | 33c | 57.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 221 | 25.3%56 W · 165 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 27c | 53.6$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.51 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 68c | 51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.14 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 349 | 34.1%119 W · 230 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…dbc0backed No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 167 | 64.1%107 W · 60 L | -13.7wins | -0.08per pick | 72cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2e99…b482backed Yes | 30c | 39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.59 | 425 | 44%187 W · 238 L | +15.1wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd92e…5ae3backed Yes | 32c | 37.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 66c | 37.23$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.66 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 67c | 33.7$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 31.94$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 63c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.38 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 30.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.98 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.91 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 29.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9151…a93ebacked No | 69c | 26.71$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 111 | 64%71 W · 40 L | +7.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +70.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x587c…603fbacked No | 66c | 22.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 56 | 71.4%40 W · 16 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca98…15b7backed No | 68c | 21.95$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.95 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33b7…0589backed No | 73c | 18.91$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.11 | 86 | 73.3%63 W · 23 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 17.45$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13e0…82f9backed No | 70c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 305 | 65.9%201 W · 104 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on May 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 88°F or higher on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 70-71°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on May 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on May 18?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.