Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x892ccab1964cdd0d53a114dad0a58fc183e2b608c0136274c26b5229df704dbe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,241
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,539
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,241 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1d9…4ce3backed Yes | 29c | 10,390$3,011 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,010.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked No | 71c | 9,998$7,099 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,899.52 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +5.4wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 32c | 1,214$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 71c | 670$476 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.07 | 144 | 52.1%75 W · 69 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6278…57e6backed Yes | 24c | 421.02$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f8…56b6backed Yes | 16c | 410.58$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.65 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 71c | 302.34$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.8 | 232 | 60.8%141 W · 91 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 15c | 300$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.68 | 202 | 32.7%66 W · 136 L | -10.9wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf69…b3ffbacked No | 79c | 251.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.88 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Yes | 29c | 171.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 70 | 31.4%22 W · 48 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 75c | 142.98$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.21 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ef4…0293backed No | 72c | 133.25$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.9 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf10f…004dbacked No | 74c | 92$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.92 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed Yes | 28c | 92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 91 | 56%51 W · 40 L | +5.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd08a…de3abacked No | 72c | 91.67$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.67 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 71c | 82.62$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.96 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 29c | 74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0aa3…64e9backed No | 70c | 54.78$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e2…c7fdbacked No | 77c | 53.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5159…d7aebacked Yes | 27c | 48.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.03 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +3.8wins | +0.34per pick | 39cpaid | +147.3%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc599…2cecbacked No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 82 | 63.4%52 W · 30 L | +6.2wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will FC Lorient win on 2025-08-30?this page
- Will FC Lorient vs. Lille OSC end in a draw?No won
- Will Lille OSC win on 2025-08-30?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.