NHL · resolved market
AHL: Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins vs. Toronto Marlies
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x89df9f58096f05c2a489cb4dfe33fd3a4048a998e31fc07db13ddeaf1f848b05
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguinsof Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins, Toronto Marlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,589 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x56d4…9c57backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 53c | 3,376$1,794 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,581.87 | 231 | 55%127 W · 104 L | +9.4wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Toronto Marlies | 48c | 1,170$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.89 | 1,636 | 50.4%825 W · 811 L | -20.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa883…32bebacked Toronto Marlies | 45c | 634.99$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab6…078ebacked Toronto Marlies | 45c | 546.63$246 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245.98 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -5.8wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccec…1dfcbacked Toronto Marlies | 48c | 518.75$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -11.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 55c | 453.99$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.29 | 162 | 35.2%57 W · 105 L | -9.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Toronto Marlies | 45c | 244.44$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 565 | 53.6%303 W · 262 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 54c | 214.7$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.76 | 519 | 49.5%257 W · 262 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x701f…9b8fbacked Toronto Marlies | 46c | 214.7$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.76 | 33 | 36.4%12 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b61…b7eabacked Toronto Marlies | 45c | 204.44$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.15per pick | 61cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ace…3afdbacked Toronto Marlies | 45c | 133.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.2wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffa3…23a4backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 103.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.81 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Toronto Marlies | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x983a…ac6bbacked Toronto Marlies | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 366 | 52.7%193 W · 173 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 497 | 47.9%238 W · 259 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6041…3326backed Toronto Marlies | 45c | 74.4$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.48 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55af…8407backed Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 54c | 61.67$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa049…4314backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 90 | 51.1%46 W · 44 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 51$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 538 | 49.4%266 W · 272 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed Toronto Marlies | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked Wilkes-Barre/Scranton Penguins | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 76 | 64.5%49 W · 27 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3123…b44dbacked Toronto Marlies | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39c6…0ac1backed Toronto Marlies | 46c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 215 | 49.3%106 W · 109 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde67…a253backed Toronto Marlies | 49c | 29.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 54cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.