Mls · resolved market
Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-10-04?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a0ca0699320513c6a9c70387552ba69a77f3b210cc55a329e353042e8ee0bf6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,726
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $35,769
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,726 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc3c3…eec8backed No | 46c | 25,000$11,439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,438.66 | 109 | 45%49 W · 60 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3151…0977backed Yes | 55c | 12,499$6,896 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,602.97 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Yes | 54c | 5,433$2,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,520.32 | 257 | 61.5%158 W · 99 L | +17.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 54c | 4,384$2,378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,006.43 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 65c | 1,907$1,243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.57 | 161 | 37.9%61 W · 100 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb412…3026backed Yes | 56c | 1,634$915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -21.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 55c | 1,609$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$728.79 | 151 | 44.4%67 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d03…369abacked Yes | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2619…9f4ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,200$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$552 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.2wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9545backed Yes | 54c | 900$483 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2934…0b51backed No | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 148 | 50%74 W · 74 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed No | 21c | 385.73$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.28 | 102 | 55.9%57 W · 45 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a86…5664backed Yes | 55c | 363.64$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.64 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +4.2wins | +0.35per pick | 40cpaid | +93.9%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed No | 37c | 350$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.5 | 318 | 34.9%111 W · 207 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbf6…513abacked Yes | 54c | 289.09$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.98 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked No | 39c | 225.75$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.46 | 132 | 57.6%76 W · 56 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed No | 43c | 200$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25b0…94ebbacked Yes | 55c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 24 | 70.8%17 W · 7 L | +3.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…475abacked Yes | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.75 | 105 | 33.3%35 W · 70 L | -10.3wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -43%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x01fa…f1babacked Yes | 58c | 34.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.6 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Yes | 53c | 32$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 206 | 48.5%100 W · 106 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked No | 40c | 26.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 235 | 48.9%115 W · 120 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23b7…32a7backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +29.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 44c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 165 | 31.5%52 W · 113 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Salt Lake win on 2025-10-04?this page
- Will Colorado Rapids SC win on 2025-10-04?No won
- Will Real Salt Lake vs. Colorado Rapids SC end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.