CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: SkinRave vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup 1 Playoffs
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a38e24ff451288bdd53af866fe34e87206c55f515e07340d659d8a11792b7e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marsborneof SkinRave, Marsborne
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,005
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,237
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,005 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2698…0958backed Marsborne | 60c | 900$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$360 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b7…0aa1backed SkinRave | 35c | 883.03$309 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.06 | 1,411 | 33.7%475 W · 936 L | +42.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked SkinRave | 40c | 867.38$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.08 | 5,050 | 55.1%2,781 W · 2,269 L | +117.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed SkinRave | 39c | 666.22$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$259.05 | 872 | 44.8%391 W · 481 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2418…66c8backed Marsborne | 65c | 557.03$362 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.96 | 608 | 53.3%324 W · 284 L | +20.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d9…df36backed Marsborne | 61c | 423.12$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.02 | 85 | 35.3%30 W · 55 L | -7.1wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaea0…0decbacked Marsborne | 62c | 357$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.41 | 489 | 48.7%238 W · 251 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked SkinRave | 40c | 300$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 543 | 48.6%264 W · 279 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x344b…f7fcbacked Marsborne | 63c | 289$183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.09 | 543 | 46.2%251 W · 292 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdad…9eaebacked SkinRave | 37c | 284.98$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.29 | 253 | 37.9%96 W · 157 L | -14.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc67…5286backed Marsborne | 74c | 228$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.28 | 1,033 | 61.6%636 W · 397 L | +87.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed SkinRave | 40c | 210$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 328 | 45.1%148 W · 180 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Marsborne | 60c | 200$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80 | 328 | 44.5%146 W · 182 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba05…f8c0backed SkinRave | 40c | 199.8$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 972 | 30%292 W · 680 L | -23.7wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked SkinRave | 23c | 152.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.86 | 329 | 30.4%100 W · 229 L | -21.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Marsborne | 63c | 138.73$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.33 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | -2.9wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed SkinRave | 16c | 128.15$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked SkinRave | 14c | 103.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 7,925 | 50.4%3,997 W · 3,928 L | +179.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0b…7cccbacked Marsborne | 61c | 95.48$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.24 | 454 | 50.2%228 W · 226 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Marsborne | 64c | 91.02$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.6 | 303 | 35.6%108 W · 195 L | -13.3wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9592…a85bbacked Marsborne | 61c | 82$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 362 | 45.3%164 W · 198 L | +12.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0a…3a55backed Marsborne | 61c | 56.34$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked SkinRave | 41c | 56.1$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 147 | 28.6%42 W · 105 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d2…fe64backed SkinRave | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa6…03ebbacked SkinRave | 38c | 44.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 956 | 42.6%407 W · 549 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a02…a770backed Marsborne | 63c | 39.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.68 | 315 | 32.4%102 W · 213 L | -15.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8de6…8b3cbacked Marsborne | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95dc…4b45backed Marsborne | 61c | 20.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 58cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b8…89e4backed Marsborne | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: SkinRave vs Marsborne (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North America Cup 1 Playoffsthis page
- Counter-Strike: SkinRave vs Marsborne - Map 1 WinnerMarsborne won
- Counter-Strike: SkinRave vs Marsborne - Map 2 WinnerMarsborne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.