Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a79504c500bce2ea21791843f73e77a2b59aa988f6029b93055e5bb1276a852
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,653
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,598
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,653 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x58c1…e8b0backed Yes | 1c | 6,000$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 116 | 27.6%32 W · 84 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e20…fd40backed Yes | 6c | 1,179$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.74 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bde…a062backed Yes | 33c | 485$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb182…005fbacked Yes | 11c | 460$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.55 | 600 | 33.8%203 W · 397 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50c2…6d37backed No | 67c | 440$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +73.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…a993backed Yes | 33c | 285$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe36…5339backed Yes | 34c | 280$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bc6…f24dbacked Yes | 34c | 280$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…4cbbbacked Yes | 34c | 220$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x87a3…dad3backed No | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +94.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb94d…4402backed No | 66c | 165$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.1 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +127.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6c9…975ebacked Yes | 16c | 148.48$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 24 | 8.3%2 W · 22 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 16cpaid | -77%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7953…c867backed No | 66c | 145$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdcb5…14fdbacked No | 67c | 145$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2289…b9a1backed No | 66c | 145$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b3a…02bfbacked No | 66c | 140$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceca…3a75backed No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc655…37bbbacked No | 67c | 140$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +49.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b4a…34e3backed Yes | 33c | 130$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.9 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bf8…f46dbacked Yes | 34c | 115$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4024…35ccbacked No | 66c | 95$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…4d23backed Yes | 19c | 80$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 987 | 38.1%376 W · 611 L | +80.8wins | +0.08per pick | 30cpaid | +32.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9469…6d18backed No | 50c | 34.79$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 959 | 42.4%407 W · 552 L | +84.9wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf5ad…0b30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x902e…b45dbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 64-65°F on March 31?this page
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 61°F or below on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be 72°F or higher on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 62-63°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 66-67°F on March 31?No won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 68-69°F on March 31?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 70-71°F on March 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.