La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a83a6ba2cae4cadf67d3d37d5100dffeb78aef9660ad1a062cf0585cd5bf30a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,698
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,698 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Under | 26c | 4,634$1,190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,190 | 120 | 20%24 W · 96 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 73c | 1,986$1,452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.22 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…761fbacked Over | 55c | 1,100$605 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 56cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Over | 44c | 999.98$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.99 | 228 | 59.6%136 W · 92 L | +18.2wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +55.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f7…0c5abacked Under | 45c | 787.7$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.47 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 56c | 645.76$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.2 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f8…1655backed Over | 30c | 594.96$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.47 | 33 | 72.7%24 W · 9 L | +8.2wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Over | 50c | 540$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270 | 378 | 29.4%111 W · 267 L | -9.5wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 56c | 496.69$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$278.15 | 834 | 44.6%372 W · 462 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…b612backed Over | 63c | 317.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.83 | 223 | 57%127 W · 96 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Over | 34c | 299$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.34 | 106 | 29.2%31 W · 75 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6562…4e48backed Over | 51c | 190$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.83 | 192 | 58.9%113 W · 79 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e7…3335backed Over | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 128 | 75%96 W · 32 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde56…c2f9backed Over | 43c | 116.98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.98 | 77 | 50.6%39 W · 38 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4cc7…b90dbacked Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.11 | 82 | 36.6%30 W · 52 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x447d…bd4abacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 42 | 38.1%16 W · 26 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Over | 32c | 107.65$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.2 | 187 | 47.1%88 W · 99 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 68c | 107.65$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.2 | 504 | 49.8%251 W · 253 L | +7.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 58c | 106.67$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.35 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Over | 68c | 87.07$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.07 | 193 | 45.1%87 W · 106 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Under | 59c | 78$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.94 | 999 | 33.4%334 W · 665 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 33c | 74.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.74 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -4.5wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Over | 77c | 51.12$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 198 | 65.2%129 W · 69 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed Under | 58c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 202 | 53.5%108 W · 94 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 64c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b1f…7b4bbacked Under | 69c | 17.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde25…c0a5backed Under | 64c | 16.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 50 | 52%26 W · 24 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 3.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 0.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 4.5Under won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol B vs. CD Mirandés: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: CD Mirandés (-2.5)Real Sociedad de Fútbol B won
- Spread: Real Sociedad de Fútbol B (-1.5)CD Mirandés won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.