Stocks · resolved market
Will Google dip to $300 in December?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8a9f7998e384b8e595db907b3ebea2be6405d24a73818546ac2d129dd8172ef7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,439
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,311
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,439 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 6 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x969f…4d55backed No | 46c | 605$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.63 | 1,111 | 43.7%486 W · 625 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16ac…ab83backed No | 43c | 259$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.37 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 30cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7b8…2c1fbacked No | 49c | 151.5$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.38 | 95 | 30.5%29 W · 66 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf03…3f1dbacked Yes | 44c | 87.53$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.74 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 56c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 293 | 23.2%68 W · 225 L | -31.5wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2361…e16ebacked No | 55c | 32.53$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 168 | 44.6%75 W · 93 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Google dip to $300 in December?this page
- Will Google dip to $260 in December?No won
- Will Google dip to $275 in December?No won
- Will Google dip to $290 in December?No won
- Will Google dip to $310 in December?Yes won
- Will Google reach $330 in December?No won
- Will Google reach $340 in December?No won
- Will Google reach $355 in December?No won
- Will Google reach $375 in December?No won
- Will Google reach $395 in December?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.