Middle East · resolved market
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by July 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8aca7a9e928f1ce19903657274597ce4705ea7ac6b47e9f240f2677e45814da5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Middle Eastevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $50,486
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $53,013
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $50,486 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Middle East is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Middle East | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9afc…314bbacked Yes | 1c | 2,321$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,169$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 476 | 9.9%47 W · 429 L | +15.1wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +75.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,090$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,558 | 7.2%112 W · 1,446 L | -35.1wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6270…1ffbbacked Yes | 4c | 880$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5f…a657backed Yes | 4c | 880$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.32 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…75d4backed Yes | 4c | 870$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf144…cf62backed Yes | 4c | 870$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x51e5…ba4cbacked Yes | 4c | 870$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4627…2cf8backed Yes | 4c | 857$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7abb…b601backed Yes | 4c | 853.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d4…a3cbbacked Yes | 4c | 840$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc4…4249backed Yes | 4c | 840$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7b…4c4abacked Yes | 4c | 840$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…2b44backed Yes | 4c | 840$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3c5…a0f3backed Yes | 3c | 825.74$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 79 | 26.6%21 W · 58 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc585…6abebacked Yes | 4c | 821.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x403e…0462backed Yes | 4c | 820$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.98 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc821…8123backed Yes | 4c | 810$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc765…b4fdbacked Yes | 4c | 810$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe794…18b5backed Yes | 4c | 805$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7caf…a72fbacked Yes | 4c | 805$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb20e…4e44backed Yes | 4c | 804.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb16…23d0backed Yes | 4c | 804.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaed8…b2bcbacked Yes | 4c | 785$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5883…f985backed Yes | 4c | 676$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa38…2335backed Yes | 4c | 676$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e41…96e2backed Yes | 4c | 674$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9350…4017backed Yes | 4c | 674$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a90…2ff9backed Yes | 5c | 599.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 284 | 38.7%110 W · 174 L | +13.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 358 | 8.7%31 W · 327 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | +99.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb8…48f6backed Yes | 4c | 400$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 26c | 85.8$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 857 | 25.2%216 W · 641 L | -115.1wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe3ae…217abacked Yes | 16c | 79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 59 | 11.9%7 W · 52 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Middle East and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.