Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ad32bf4ebeda3c1ad7a8907296550a310c815dcef137ac035ebc680ec98da3f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,869
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,548
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,869 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc1a9…d211backed Yes | 1c | 1,662$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 22c | 221.72$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.82 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 57c | 196.51$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 29c | 183.79$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.66 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 171.2$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.93 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41aa…9e8cbacked Yes | 6c | 165$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 607 | 3.3%20 W · 587 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d07…2b94backed Yes | 39c | 141.61$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.95 | 174 | 43.7%76 W · 98 L | -8.6wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 140$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.32 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 17c | 132.83$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 61c | 103.75$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.84 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 36c | 102.1$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.55 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed5c…8cf8backed Yes | 42c | 100.33$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.39 | 259 | 35.1%91 W · 168 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 20c | 94.98$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 24c | 82.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 78c | 78.03$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 20c | 75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 58c | 69.12$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.03 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07e3…37b1backed Yes | 28c | 67.8$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -4.2wins | -0.22per pick | 27cpaid | -85.8%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed No | 60c | 66.69$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.69 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 42c | 62.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 43c | 55.9$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d3e…2c6bbacked Yes | 24c | 51.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | -14.7wins | -0.08per pick | 22cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32c9…5a3ebacked Yes | 43c | 47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 76 | 28.9%22 W · 54 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a6a…b380backed Yes | 39c | 45.97$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.03 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +3.5wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 73c | 45$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.34 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…9fb3backed Yes | 36c | 42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 224 | 54.5%122 W · 102 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 58c | 39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.38 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 30.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 29$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x804b…b090backed No | 69c | 27.35$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 183 | 65.6%120 W · 63 L | -7.6wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 79c | 23.55$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 70c | 19.84$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 78c | 19.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.14 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27ab…e521backed No | 70c | 18.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.47 | 659 | 65.4%431 W · 228 L | -12.7wins | -0.02per pick | 67cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 72c | 18.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.12 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.23 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 17.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2298…9f33backed No | 60c | 17$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 351 | 68.4%240 W · 111 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 19°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 20°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 21°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Milan be 24°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.