Ligue 1 · resolved market
FC Lorient vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b8346bf2f658e63d6d62cbafdc166b046d46fb73a61b5c95f50864a63d4ad17
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,548
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $14,313
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,548 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 55c | 5,476$3,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.44 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7197…14c8backed Over | 45c | 2,221$999 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.45 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.2wins | -0.23per pick | 44cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 45c | 2,000$890 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +33.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$920 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +77.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 54c | 1,719$933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$786.82 | 190 | 55.8%106 W · 84 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68d6…cfb9backed Over | 48c | 1,042$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe235…aba2backed Under | 56c | 853.03$478 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Over | 42c | 345.77$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 123 | 39.8%49 W · 74 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Under | 54c | 225.93$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.93 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +80.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b2b…d4d3backed Over | 46c | 150.24$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 48c | 144.08$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.16 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x908a…ad16backed Over | 13c | 138.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.37 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -6.2wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x338b…97b3backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9817…28bcbacked Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x883f…aad2backed Over | 48c | 104.17$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 58c | 100$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4f…8921backed Over | 48c | 94.64$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Over | 41c | 65.73$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3694…4fd6backed Under | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 34c | 33.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 215 | 60%129 W · 86 L | +15.7wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Under | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 47cpaid | -32.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbabd…f4d2backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f1a…7c47backed Over | 45c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 68 | 50%34 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b5f…5e78backed Under | 54c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- FC Lorient vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5)FC Lorient won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.