Champions League · resolved market
Will Manchester City beat Feyenoord?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b965c99a3c9a622596cf4e7898c3d567ffb49974ab5d8c317dc250f702e493a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,086
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $45,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,086 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed No | 15c | 3,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,540 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked No | 16c | 2,928$469 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,459.9 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | -3.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 11c | 2,581$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,292.58 | 226 | 47.3%107 W · 119 L | +12.7wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed No | 16c | 2,505$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,114.2 | 247 | 42.5%105 W · 142 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 74c | 1,722$1,268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$453.86 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed No | 16c | 1,000$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$840 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 17c | 999.98$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$829.09 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked No | 3c | 887.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.2 | 49 | 24.5%12 W · 37 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | +157.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…4db9backed No | 16c | 599.99$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$504 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.9wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 16c | 568.24$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.81 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 15c | 500$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$425 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 17c | 499.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$414.95 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x58ca…cc33backed No | 9c | 270$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.1wins | +0.17per pick | 41cpaid | +131.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e09…3cb2backed No | 8c | 240$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.8 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +158.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12f2…79d0backed No | 18c | 195$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$159.5 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -48%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…fd64backed No | 13c | 139.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.65 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed No | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 8c | 125$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked No | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3bb…ad38backed Yes | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 15c | 70$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed No | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.5 | 290 | 34.5%100 W · 190 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c43…b289backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c0…3f84backed Yes | 80c | 25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -3.5wins | -0.13per pick | 48cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Manchester City beat Feyenoord?this page
- Will Feyenoord beat Manchester City?No won
- Will the match between Manchester City and Feyenoord end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.