Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b9732e48061a89841c0d1100d2e42f50c7c2175ea3860af654dbadaf5e7e266
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,399
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,017
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,399 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5d4e…14cfbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 138 | 9.4%13 W · 125 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 2cpaid | +357.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 3c | 1,194$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.81 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 19c | 519.6$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.56 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cf…ae32backed Yes | 28c | 354.77$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.77 | 80 | 61.3%49 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca5f…1e74backed No | 80c | 222.41$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.04 | 113 | 42.5%48 W · 65 L | -7.0wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 79c | 195.66$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 16c | 180.31$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.95 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31d…b920backed Yes | 47c | 145.11$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.47 | 180 | 35%63 W · 117 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 80c | 131.66$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 12c | 129.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed Yes | 19c | 119.47$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.7 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0645…c08ebacked Yes | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.57 | 63 | 38.1%24 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbea…76d0backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c5…921cbacked No | 75c | 91.69$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 21c | 83$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.66 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 78.81$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 16c | 78.52$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 17c | 71.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 342 | 19.9%68 W · 274 L | +18.6wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Yes | 29c | 70.21$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 86 | 36%31 W · 55 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6c8…72d0backed Yes | 45c | 59.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.3 | 37 | 59.5%22 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked No | 71c | 59.65$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.3 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 30c | 57.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5504…665dbacked No | 73c | 53.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 100 | 55%55 W · 45 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcb…634fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 215 | 47.4%102 W · 113 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 75c | 49.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 73c | 49.65$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed No | 80c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 275 | 40%110 W · 165 L | -10.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0461…fcbcbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 724 | 66.2%479 W · 245 L | +33.6wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775c…28a9backed No | 73c | 39$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.53 | 89 | 64%57 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515f…a606backed No | 73c | 38.97$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.52 | 175 | 53.1%93 W · 82 L | -8.3wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71af…6b3dbacked No | 70c | 25.31$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd30d…fd5dbacked No | 79c | 25.11$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.33 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -4.1wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -17%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 77c | 24.21$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x194c…88c5backed No | 80c | 21.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.24per pick | 74cpaid | -33%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 70c | 21.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 1,026 | 64%657 W · 369 L | +49.8wins | +0.05per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on March 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C or below on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on March 21?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on March 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 23°C or higher on March 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.