Tennis · resolved market
Set 1 Winner: Svitolina vs Swiatek
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8b9b1292fd0ae09bcdd4534fcb0b7bf62ff0cdce16a899f987f4b0602313e31d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Svitolinaof Svitolina, Swiatek
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,321
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,321 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Svitolina | 66c | 640.48$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.68 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x683a…274ebacked Swiatek | 40c | 600$240 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +58.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5085…9bbcbacked Svitolina | 47c | 460$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.8 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Svitolina | 62c | 448.7$279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.12 | 7,018 | 43.2%3,031 W · 3,987 L | +124.9wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd205…e7fbbacked Swiatek | 32c | 345.61$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.88 | 310 | 39.4%122 W · 188 L | -10.6wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a73…e1adbacked Swiatek | 20c | 315.51$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 158 | 26.6%42 W · 116 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa24…b2b4backed Swiatek | 31c | 264.25$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.35 | 75 | 49.3%37 W · 38 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd785…0d7ebacked Swiatek | 41c | 149.16$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 425 | 58.8%250 W · 175 L | +10.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda74…1ab0backed Swiatek | 55c | 135.37$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 945 | 49.6%469 W · 476 L | -23.7wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Svitolina | 47c | 116.57$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.92 | 7,816 | 50.6%3,958 W · 3,858 L | +95.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5339…9da3backed Swiatek | 70c | 72.76$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 864 | 70%605 W · 259 L | +43.2wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Swiatek | 51c | 66.58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.79 | 134 | 44%59 W · 75 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x930b…0223backed Swiatek | 55c | 59.89$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.94 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Svitolina | 30c | 58.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 7,139 | 49.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L | +109.9wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Svitolina | 60c | 50.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.23 | 1,417 | 45.2%640 W · 777 L | +41.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Svitolina | 66c | 31.25$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.67 | 6,439 | 54.4%3,502 W · 2,937 L | +285.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Svitolina | 56c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.35 | 381 | 47%179 W · 202 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Swiatek | 67c | 19.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 7,724 | 47.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L | +41.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Set 1 Winner: Svitolina vs Swiatekthis page
- BNP Paribas Open: Elina Svitolina vs Iga SwiatekElina Svitolina won
- Elina Svitolina vs. Iga Swiatek: Total Sets O/U 2.5Over 2.5 won
- Set Handicap: Swiatek (-1.5) vs Svitolina (+1.5)Svitolina won
- Svitolina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 21.5Over won
- Svitolina vs. Swiatek: Match O/U 22.5Over won
- Svitolina vs. Swiatek: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.