Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bd19a35e1a30211a12de42dc5e806b3072c30fa2ac65e8b91b9b5ab6e34db0c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,074
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,074 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Shpilit | 25c | 249.99$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.5 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 217.56$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 68c | 132.3$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.99 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Team Shpilit | 29c | 112.37$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.39 | 869 | 49%426 W · 443 L | -3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafa2…e45cbacked Yellow Submarine | 73c | 87$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d9…7cfbbacked Team Shpilit | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 201 | 51.2%103 W · 98 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Yellow Submarine | 77c | 43.47$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x127e…cca1backed Team Shpilit | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 461 | 50.8%234 W · 227 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Team Shpilit (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.