Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group A
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa5ab380155c00bcfc8ad32a3a52db250680b6a00e583cda77ea93feb1d5fc171
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yellow Submarineof Yellow Submarine, Team Shpilit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,205
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,205 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Shpilit | 25c | 5,685$1,416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,415.73 | 236 | 53%125 W · 111 L | +12.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 2,124$1,592 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.56 | 138 | 54.3%75 W · 63 L | +6.6wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b59…0ba0backed Yellow Submarine | 74c | 1,500$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.61 | 277 | 37.2%103 W · 174 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfeb…763ebacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 1,200$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Team Shpilit | 26c | 1,098$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.48 | 83 | 28.9%24 W · 59 L | -6.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa19d…3909backed Yellow Submarine | 80c | 720.45$573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.29 | 251 | 50.2%126 W · 125 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5a…bf71backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 533.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.33 | 466 | 49.8%232 W · 234 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd102…eed2backed Yellow Submarine | 73c | 493$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.74 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9b…c323backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 447$335 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.75 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe463…f7b2backed Team Shpilit | 20c | 398.94$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.91 | 208 | 38.9%81 W · 127 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bdd…1b11backed Team Shpilit | 20c | 395$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x736d…c635backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 200$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 971 | 42.7%415 W · 556 L | -20.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Team Shpilit | 19c | 190.8$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.12 | 562 | 43.2%243 W · 319 L | +14.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Shpilit | 21c | 161.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 605 | 42.6%258 W · 347 L | -14.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0310…4745backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 134$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e4…eabbbacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +4.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x66ed…d321backed Team Shpilit | 22c | 102.36$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 340 | 45.9%156 W · 184 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed Yellow Submarine | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ba6…2a7ebacked Team Shpilit | 18c | 69.96$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.79 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x653e…bbc0backed Team Shpilit | 22c | 69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 101 | 36.6%37 W · 64 L | -7.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Team Shpilit | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | +4.5wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b38…4d61backed Yellow Submarine | 75c | 45.5$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 122 | 29.5%36 W · 86 L | -18.2wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xdbda…8bd5backed Yellow Submarine | 76c | 24$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 132 | 59.8%79 W · 53 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x155b…d7babacked Yellow Submarine | 78c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.84 | 149 | 62.4%93 W · 56 L | +21.8wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked Yellow Submarine | 75c | 20.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0caa…b2bdbacked Yellow Submarine | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 147 | 62.6%92 W · 55 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Shpilit (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Play-In Group Athis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Shpilit - Game 1 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Team Shpilit - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Team Shpilit (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.