Other European Leagues · resolved market
Motherwell FC vs. Falkirk FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8bef281050fce6d4f5be35826860dbbf7374089c46dfbb7634a732a2debb3f04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Other European Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,136
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,923
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,136 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 13 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Other European Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 628.01$423 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.56 | 7,889 | 45.4%3,579 W · 4,310 L | +11.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf00…353fbacked Over | 46c | 543$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.22 | 74 | 39.2%29 W · 45 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1399…48c8backed Over | 17c | 185.16$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.68 | 309 | 63.1%195 W · 114 L | +45.1wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 17c | 169.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.79 | 338 | 58.6%198 W · 140 L | +30.9wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee7…4c1abacked Under | 80c | 118.43$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 54 | 59.3%32 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 17c | 111.1$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.21 | 347 | 60.8%211 W · 136 L | +33.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 26c | 78.13$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.81 | 5,604 | 42%2,356 W · 3,248 L | +75.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Over | 20c | 74.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.99 | 192 | 65.1%125 W · 67 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 25c | 60.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.22 | 2,309 | 42.8%988 W · 1,321 L | -41.2wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb239…80b4backed Under | 72c | 41.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bd9…084fbacked Over | 34c | 30$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.8 | 165 | 51.5%85 W · 80 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd208…cbcdbacked Under | 80c | 28.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 60cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x30db…44e1backed Under | 78c | 17.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Other European Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Motherwell FC vs. Falkirk FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Motherwell FC vs. Falkirk FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Motherwell FC vs. Falkirk FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. Falkirk FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Motherwell FC vs. Falkirk FC: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: Falkirk FC (-1.5)Motherwell FC won
- Spread: Motherwell FC (-1.5)Falkirk FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.